It's not your fault, but its not TikTok's either

The tech market isn't oversaturated because of TikToks, and employers aren't firing devs because of AI. There's a deeper cause that's often overlooked, especially by younger devs who are being hit hard by the downturn.

The job market is cooked

I'm writing this because I see too many people pointing fingers at "Day in the Life" videos for market saturation. That's not the issue. These videos have existed for years. If they were the problem, the industry would have tanked long ago.

Other common scapegoats include bootcamps and AI advancements. I don't claim to be an expert in AI, so I can't make broad claims about whether or not AI will take our jobs in the future. But I can confidently say this: GPT-4 is not ready to run production-ready software. As for bootcamps, I believe they fill an important niche. Not every dev making CRUD apis or buttons in React needs to know what a Red-Black tree is. At my last job, my team's Staff engineer was a self-taught university dropout. Tech values skills over credentials, and fetishizing degrees won't take us anywhere good.

The real culprit: Interest Rates

So, what's the real cause of the downturn? I'd like to propose that it's interest rates. Young devs are understandably angry at the world because the market isn't providing them a path to a decent living. This systemic failure absolutely justifies their anger. I urge those devs to direct that anger towards those truly in power, not fellow devs. People in tech for the money aren't the enemy; they're trying to provide for themselves and their families.

High interest rates are driven by inflation, a direct consequence of excessive money printing. The money printed during the pandemic hasn't been distributed fairly. Since 2020, the world's 10 richest men have doubled their net worths, while average people see their purchasing power shrink due to inflation. When borrowing is expensive, companies naturally cut back on spending – including R&D budgets that support engineering jobs. And with each layoff, stocks shoot up and investors get richer and richer. The system is rigged against us right now, and there's not much we can do about it.